Webinar : Political Economy in the North-South relations amid COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic poses unprecedented challenges to the international community and is due to heavily impact the global economy in the short and long run. The virus has infected over 4 million people and caused almost 300.000 casualties globally. During its spreading, mass production hastily witnessed shutdowns and supply chain disruptions, causing worldwide undulation effects encompassing all economic sectors. A steep contraction in household consumption, rising inflation and unemployment rates, and an abrupt halt in global tourism are some of its most visible consequences. Resilience of national economies vis-à-vis the current situation varies widely depending on many factors, including containment measures’ efficiency and effectiveness as well as the economic support governments consider deploying. Yet, the highly interconnectedness of the world means that fighting the virus – and navigating its economic consequences – must include both national measures and global ones. In this webinar, we reflect on alternative options for economic recovery. Trade agreements, debt relief measures, impact investments, green strategies – these are just some of the instruments available in the toolbox. The panel will address ways in which existing and new channels for cooperation between the global north and south can be leveraged to achieve the best possible way out of the crisis, with a long-term outlook on what kind of global economy we want to rebuild.

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Qual será o formato da recuperação econômica pós-coronavírus?

As projeções macroeconômicas divulgadas pelo Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) em abril mostraram uma economia global derrubada pela Covid-19. Noventa países deverão ter seus PIBs encolhidos este ano. Mesmo se antecipando um retorno a taxas positivas de crescimento no próximo ano, a renda per capita no final de 2021 ainda será menor que a de dezembro do ano passado. Trata-se de um desastre econômico comparável ao que aconteceu durante a Grande Depressão dos anos 30 no século passado.  Presume-se que a recuperação pós-crise deverá se iniciar na segunda metade do ano, pelo menos naqueles países onde o surto de coronavírus seja considerado como passado e as políticas de achatamento da curva pandêmica possam ser relaxadas. Os choques provocados pela Covid-19 têm sido profundos enquanto duram, mas invariavelmente serão temporários.  Quão rápida será tal recuperação, ou seja, qual será o formato da curva de evolução do PIB no tempo? De que dependerá esse formato?

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Shapes of post-coronavirus economic recovery

Data recently released on the first-quarter global domestic product (GDP) performance of major economies have showed how significant the impact of COVID-19 has been on economic activity and jobs, with large contractions across the board. The ongoing global recession is poised to be worse than the “great recession” after the 2008-09 global financial crisis, especially from the standpoint of emerging market and developing economies. The depth and speed of the GDP decline will rival that of the Great Depression of the 1930s. But how swiftly will national economies recover once the pandemic has passed? And when will that happen? That will depend on how successful the containment of coronavirus and exit strategies will be, as well as on how cost-effective will be the policies designed to deal with the negative economic effects of coronavirus.

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Pour Otaviano Canuto, le coronavirus a plongé les pays en développement “en pleine tempête” (inc. English version)

Le Covid-19 a précipité l’économie mondiale dans un Grand Confinement, pour reprendre l’expression du FMI. En peu de temps, les pays ont été touchés les uns après les autres par la pandémie, chacun d’entre eux étant confronté à un triple choc : épidémiologique, économique et financier. Les explications de Otaviano Canuto, Senior Fellow au Policy Center for the New South, ex-vice-président de Banque mondiale et ex-directeur exécutif au FMI. Covid-19 has submitted the global economy to a Great Lockdown, as the IMF called it. In a short time, country after country has suffered outbreaks of the new coronavirus, with each facing a three-fold shock: epidemiologic, economic, and financial. In addition to dealing with their own local coronavirus outbreaks, emerging market and developing countries have faced additional shocks from abroad. It may be said that a perfect storm has fallen on them.

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Read more about the article Channels of transmission of coronavirus to developing economies from abroad
Photo by Edwin Hooper on Unsplash

Channels of transmission of coronavirus to developing economies from abroad

In a previous article, we highlighted how developing economies have faced simultaneous shocks from their external environment, as pandemic and recession curves have unfolded abroad. In addition to financial shocks, there have been declines in remittances, tourism receipts, and commodity prices . The combination of these shocks with the hardships related to flattening domestic infection curves has configured what we have called a ‘perfect storm’ for developing countries, brought by COVID-19. Recent World Bank and United Nations World Tourism Organization reports have given us a view of how serious these shocks have been. We assess here the falls in remittances, tourism receipts, and commodity prices, particularly in oil markets (with accompanying video at bottom).

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Read more about the article Coronavírus trouxe a tempestade perfeita para países em desenvolvimento, escreve Otaviano Canuto
Exército faz descontaminação dos hospitais Hospital de Base, em Brasilila. Sérgio Lima/Poder360 31.03.2020

Coronavírus trouxe a tempestade perfeita para países em desenvolvimento, escreve Otaviano Canuto

FMI projeta quedas brutais de PIB Distanciamento social fica mais difícil Preço de commodities e turismo caem Países precisarão de ajuda externa

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Coronavirus: Denying a Crisis

Both US President Donald Trump and Brazil's leader Jair Bolsonaro face fierce criticism for their response to the coronavirus outbreak. As other nations accepted the advice of experts and went into lockdown to try to stop the spread, Brazil and the United States were almost carrying on as normal. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson may not have denied the seriousness of COVID-19, but his initial approach of taking it on the chin was a risky one. Could their inaction have cost lives? Guests: James Wallner Senior Fellow at the R Street Institute Otaviano Canuto Former Vice President of the World Bank Dr Bharat Pankhania Senior Clinical Lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School

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🔴 Live | Como a Covid-19 bate mais forte nos países emergentes

A pandemia do coronavírus se espalhou e dá a impressão de atingir o globo igualmente. Mas o ex-vice-presidente do Banco Mundial, Otaviano Canuto, entende que os países mais pobres terão um caminho longo para a recuperação no pós-crise. Em uma conversa com o economista-chefe da Genial Investimentos, José Márcio Camargo, e com a jornalista Denise Barbosa, ele vai explicar a “tempestade perfeita”.

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Coronavirus brought a perfect storm to developing countries

Coronavirus brought a perfect storm to developing countries - Flattening coronavirus curves of infection and recession will be harder in developing countries - Developing countries have faced foreign capital outflows - A boosted IMF may provide liquidity buffers for developing countries, but debt relief will be necessary to help vulnerable countries manage the coronavirus crisis

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Por que e como achatar as curvas do coronavírus

Políticas para aplainar a curva pandêmica e ganhar tempo tornam-se essenciais, independentemente de reduzirem ou não o número absoluto de casos infectados. Mesmo que no final das contas o número total de infecções seja o mesmo com ou sem políticas de contenção do ritmo de infecções, vidas serão salvas se a curva for achatada. A curva pandêmica gera uma curva de recessão que também precisa ser achatada. Existe troca entre salvar vidas por políticas de contenção e perdas de produção como consequência de tais políticas? Esse é um falso dilema.

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More than one coronavirus curve to manage: infection, recession and external finance

The global reach of COVID-19 is now clear. In a short time, country after country has suffered outbreaks of the new coronavirus, with each facing a three-fold shock: epidemiologic, economic, and financial. In addition to dealing with their own local coronavirus outbreaks, emerging market and developing countries have faced additional shocks from abroad.

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Bate-papo com Otaviano Canuto sobre o Impacto do covid-19 na América Latina e Brasil

Nesses 2 vídeos conversamos com o economista Otaviano Canuto, que com sua larga experiência no Banco Mundial, FMI e BID, vai nos falar da sua percepção dos impactos econômicos e sociais da pandemia do covid-19 na América Latina e o Brasil.

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