Read more about the article The Post-Pandemic Great Reset

The Post-Pandemic Great Reset

The crisis recovery has been uneven, unequal, and incomplete, within and among countries. Additionally, we wonder about to what extent the pandemic has accelerated history by reinforcing some previous trends, leading the world to a “great reset”. Among the enduring consequences of the pandemic, four of them are here highlighted: digital transformation has been speeded up; globalization will be reshaped; higher public debt will be a legacy from the crisis; and some economic scarring from the pandemic in labor markets may be expected.

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Read more about the article Supply Chain Disruptions and Bottlenecks Dampen the Global Economic Recovery

Supply Chain Disruptions and Bottlenecks Dampen the Global Economic Recovery

Scarcity of inputs and goods has been felt all over the world because of disruptions to global value chains since the beginning of the pandemic. Higher inflation has been a global phenomenon, even if with different intensities and multiple determinants. A mismatch between demand and supply can also be found in the energy price shocks. The running of supply chains in the U.S. has also been affected by an unexpected shrinkage in the workforce because of acceleration in retirements caused by the pandemic. The Fed's ‘wait-and-see attitude’—moving on to the tapering this year and likely small rises at the end of next year—is opposed by those who think the Fed is already behind.

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Read more about the article Permanent Output Losses From the Pandemic

Permanent Output Losses From the Pandemic

Divergent recoveries  are leaving “lasting imprints”, with emerging and developing economies suffering deeper medium-term damage than advanced countries, on average. Most countries are now forecast to have lower GDP in 2024 than projected in January 2020 before the pandemic. This is different from crises associated with industrial or financial cycles common in history because, in those cases, in general, some period of above normal or trend growth will have occurred previously. In the pandemic there has been only the loss side.

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Read more about the article FMI aponta perdas permanentes de PIB com a pandemia

FMI aponta perdas permanentes de PIB com a pandemia

O FMI se referiu a “marcas duradouras” deixadas no curso das recuperações divergentes, com economias emergentes e em desenvolvimento apresentando no médio prazo danos mais profundos que a média entre países avançados. Há que se distinguir, de um lado, a perda permanente de PIB derivada da pandemia e, de outro, as consequências desta sobre sua futura trajetória. Crises associadas a ciclos industriais e financeiros sucedem períodos de crescimento; na pandemia, só há o lado da perda

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Read more about the article Building an Inclusive Recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean

Building an Inclusive Recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean

The COVID-19 pandemic brought a halt to the expansion of Latin America’s middle class and pushed millions back into poverty. Reversing this pattern requires addressing the region’s vulnerability to economic shocks and strengthening countries’ resilience.

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Read more about the article Por que maiores déficits em conta corrente não são problemáticos na crise de Covid

Por que maiores déficits em conta corrente não são problemáticos na crise de Covid

Apesar do aumento dos saldos em conta corrente em termos absolutos em 2020 (em 0,4 ponto percentual do PIB global), os desequilíbrios globais excessivos —ou seja, a soma dos valores absolutos dos saldos considerados divergentes dos níveis correspondentes a fundamentos e políticas adequadas no médio prazo— se mantiveram em torno de 1,2% do PIB mundial, próximos aos anteriores.

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Read more about the article The Global Economy and the Pandemic

The Global Economy and the Pandemic

There remains tremendous uncertainty and prospects of a post-pandemic recovery vary greatly across countries, as it is bound to happen at different paces. And the divergence of per capita incomes in the world is rising as an aftermath of the pandemic. The pandemic will leave scars in labor markets and income distribution, besides higher public debts as a legacy. A higher pace of automation of jobs, as well as a partial reversal of globalization are also to be expected.

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Read more about the article Global Recovery May Not Be Enough for Latin America

Global Recovery May Not Be Enough for Latin America

The massive vaccine disparities between advanced and developing economies may exacerbate what the IMF has dubbed “divergent recoveries” – with dire consequences for Latin America. A robust recovery in the United States, European Union and China, while largely beneficial to the global economy, conceals some important risks for those falling behind. A successful post-COVID recovery in Latin America should be defined as an inflection point towards more resilient, inclusive, and productive growth patterns.

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Read more about the article The Pandemic Will Leave Scars on the Job Market

The Pandemic Will Leave Scars on the Job Market

The pandemic is leaving a trail of unemployment, particularly affecting minorities, low-skilled workers and, in emerging markets and developing economies, women, who predominantly occupy jobs in contact-intensive services. Many of the practices adopted during the pandemic are likely to persist. The role of public policies will be central in the post-COVID-19 world, both in strengthening social protection - including through unemployment insurance and income transfer programs - and in the requalification of workers.

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Read more about the article Por que a pandemia deixará cicatrizes no mercado de trabalho?

Por que a pandemia deixará cicatrizes no mercado de trabalho?

O aumento na desigualdade da renda nos países avançados a partir dos anos 90 teve no progresso tecnológico uma de suas principais causas. Sua aceleração com a pandemia tende, portanto, a intensificar os desafios. De certo modo, cabe dizer que a pandemia está acelerando a história, mais que a mudando. O papel das políticas públicas será central nesse mundo pós-covid, tanto no reforço da proteção social —inclusive mediante seguros-desemprego e programas de transferências de renda— quanto na requalificação de trabalhadores. Em lugar de negar o avanço tecnológico, cabe mais ter o poder público ajudando na adaptação e na minimização do ônus das cicatrizes.

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Read more about the article Los desafíos que deja la pandemia según Otaviano Canuto

Los desafíos que deja la pandemia según Otaviano Canuto

El exvicepresidente del Banco Mundial, Otaviano Canuto, analizó los retos que deja la pandemia a nivel mundial, las diferencias entre países desarrollados y subdesarrollados y los sectores donde pegó con más fuerza. El economista brasilero exdirector de la junta del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) analizó también la relación de Jair Bolsonaro con el expresidente Donald Trump y cómo puede evolucionar su vínculo con Joe Biden.

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Read more about the article Globalização remodelada pela pandemia, escreve Otaviano Canuto

Globalização remodelada pela pandemia, escreve Otaviano Canuto

Ao intensificar forças geopolíticas e econômicas já em ação, o impacto perturbador da pandemia no comércio internacional deixará uma marca duradoura. A pandemia está acelerando a história, ou seja, algumas tendências recentes estão sendo acentuadas. A pandemia não reverterá a globalização, mas a remodelará.

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Read more about the article Global Economy and Coronavirus: 2 videos

Global Economy and Coronavirus: 2 videos

The global economic activity has climbed up since June but there are signs that the recovery may be losing momentum. Instead of a V, U, W, or L, a square root as a recovery shape looks more likely, as we approached before in this series. And the crisis is likely to leave deep, unequal scars on segments of the labor market, while a reallocation of resources among sectors is already taking place

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