Read more about the article Why is President Bolsonaro’s popularity on the rise in Brazil?

Why is President Bolsonaro’s popularity on the rise in Brazil?

Despite downplaying the seriousness of COVID-19, Brazil’s president’s approval rating is at its highest since he took office. Brazil has the world’s second-highest number of coronavirus deaths after the United States. President Jair Bolsonaro’s dismissive stance has helped oversee the coronavirus’ rapid spread, with more than four million cases and 135,000 deaths rocking the country. Millions have lost their jobs and the economy is in recession. But support from the poor has made Bolsonaro’s popularity rocket to its highest level since he took office in 2018. So what is the reason for this?

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Read more about the article Brazil, South Korea: Two Tales of Climbing an Income Ladder

Brazil, South Korea: Two Tales of Climbing an Income Ladder

The “middle income trap” may well characterize the experience of Brazil and most of Latin America since the 1980s. Conversely, South Korea maintained its pace of evolution, reaching a high-income status. Such divergence of economic growth can be related to their distinctive performances of domestic accumulation of technological and organizational capabilities. Their different approaches to global value chains and trade globalization reinforced such discrepancy in domestic accumulation processes.

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Read more about the article Brazil, South Korea, and Global Value Chains: A Tale of Two Countries

Brazil, South Korea, and Global Value Chains: A Tale of Two Countries

South Korea has climbed the income per capita ladder up to high levels, while Brazil may be considered a case of a “middle-income trap”. Such divergence of economic growth performances can be related to their distinctive approaches to global value chains and trade globalization, as well as to domestic accumulation of technological and organizational capabilities.

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Read more about the article Brazil’s Economic Crossroads: Which Path Will It Choose?
A screen displays data inside the Ministry of Science, Innovation, Technology and Communication's (MCTIC) crisis management command center in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. Brazil's telecommunications operators have provided the government with geolocation data to help monitor population mobility, concentration and risk of contamination in an effort to help stop the spread of the coronavirus. Photographer: Jonne Roriz/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Brazil’s Economic Crossroads: Which Path Will It Choose?

The scar of COVID-19 will take a long time to heal. And the country will also have to battle on the economic side, where the impact will be deep and long-lasting. Starting from a jump in the already high level of debt in relation to its GDP, coming from both sides of the equation: spending has skyrocketed while a steep decline in its gross domestic product is expected for this year. A combination of a credible return to the fiscal adjustment path and investment-friendly structural reforms would also have the additional positive effect of making possible new rounds of foreign capital inflows. That would reinforce the likelihood that the Brazilian economy will go down the optimistic path of growth and debt, rather than the pessimistic one.

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Read more about the article Brazil 2020-21: Predictions and Perspectives

Brazil 2020-21: Predictions and Perspectives

Brazil-Florida Business Council 2020-21: Predictions and Perspectives Join us to hear from this spectacular assemble of celebrated speakers on their predictions and perspectives for 2020-21 in the US and Brazil, as both economies are struggling during a global health and economic pandemic: Alberto Ramos, Alberto Bernal, Lisa Schineller, Otaviano Canuto, and Christopher Garman. Program moderator: Julia Leite

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Read more about the article Is Brazil’s Bolsonaro the ‘Trump of the Tropics?’

Is Brazil’s Bolsonaro the ‘Trump of the Tropics?’

The Newsmakers 'So what? What do you want me to do?' is how Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro responded when asked about the skyrocketing number of coronavirus cases in the country. He calls it 'the little flu' and has blamed everyone from his health minister to the media for the crisis. So, is this right-wing populist placing his political survival above the health and welfare of the people? Guests: Guests: Otaviano Canuto Former Vice President of the World Bank Chayenne Polimedio Fellow with the Political Reform Program at New America Julio Morais Executive Director for the Public Administration Institution

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Read more about the article Does the Brazilian policy for oil revenues distribution foster investment in human capital?

Does the Brazilian policy for oil revenues distribution foster investment in human capital?

This paper assesses the effect of oil revenues on health and education indicators (measures for human capital) in the Brazilian municipalities using exogenous oil price variations. The Oil Law of 1997, apart from to hugely increase the amount of oil revenues distributed to the eligible municipalities due to the withdraw of the internal control price system, broadened its possible uses by the eligible municipalities, including investments in health and education in addition to traditional investments in infrastructure. Since Brazil has decentralized primary education and primary health care provision to the municipalities, we use the oil price as an external intervention in local economies to identify the effect of the non-renewed natural resources in promoting sustainable growth. We also explore the high inequality in oil revenues distribution among municipalities. Similar to the previous literature, our results point to a small improvement of the human capital indicators in the long run. The contribution of the largest oil revenue recipients, however, is null for these indicators.

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Read more about the article Coronavirus: Denying a Crisis

Coronavirus: Denying a Crisis

Both US President Donald Trump and Brazil's leader Jair Bolsonaro face fierce criticism for their response to the coronavirus outbreak. As other nations accepted the advice of experts and went into lockdown to try to stop the spread, Brazil and the United States were almost carrying on as normal. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson may not have denied the seriousness of COVID-19, but his initial approach of taking it on the chin was a risky one. Could their inaction have cost lives? Guests: James Wallner Senior Fellow at the R Street Institute Otaviano Canuto Former Vice President of the World Bank Dr Bharat Pankhania Senior Clinical Lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School

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Read more about the article Brazil’s Biggest Economic Risk Is Complacency
PRISCILA ZAMBOTTO

Brazil’s Biggest Economic Risk Is Complacency

This year can be a decisive one for Brazil’s transition to a more robust and sustainable growth path – but only if the government commits to fiscal and structural reform. If Brazil’s leaders fail to take this opportunity to lay the foundations for long-term prosperity, it may not be long before the economy stalls again.

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Read more about the article Trying to make sense of Mr. Trump’s tweet on Brazil and Argentina

Trying to make sense of Mr. Trump’s tweet on Brazil and Argentina

In our view, while clarification and formalization of measures do not come, I have to agree with a former colleague on the IMF Executive Board of Directors, the Argentine Hector Torres, who in a comment Monday on LinkedIn noted: “President Trump believes that governments of Brazil and Argentina are manufacturing currency devaluations to damage US farmers… and respond by raising tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum… the premise is wrong and the reaction folly! ”. Not without first contributing to the uncertainty that, as we have observed, has already negatively impacted the global economy.

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Read more about the article Aljazeera – How unpaid corporate taxes led to violent protests in Ecuador

Aljazeera – How unpaid corporate taxes led to violent protests in Ecuador

Otaviano Canuto, a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South who has also held roles at the IMF and the World Bank, tells Al Jazeera that the scrapping of fuel subsidies had differentiated impacts on the social structure in Ecuador. "Cutting the fuel subsidies, paradoxically, while in some other countries it might benefit particularly the poor, because as long as it is accompanied by compensatory social policies, the fact is that the major beneficiaries very often are the middle classes who use cars, who benefit from the oil subsidies and so on," Canuto says.

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Read more about the article Brazil must hold to structural reforms while undergoing slow economic recovery

Brazil must hold to structural reforms while undergoing slow economic recovery

Brazil's economic recovery after the deep 2015-16 recession has been the slowest on record, with GDP per capita last year remaining more than 9% below its pre-crisis peak. The IMF's annual report on the country's economy, released two weeks ago, estimated current GDP to be nearly 4% below its potential level, which suggests insufficiency of aggregate demand. On the other hand, as the slow recovery reflects structural factors, it is necessary to avoid the use of measures to reinforce such demand that might run against the confrontation of such problems.

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