O estresse bancário dos Estados Unidos poderá ter novos capítulos
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The U.S. Dollar’s “Exorbitant Privilege” Remains
• Notwithstanding the ongoing drive by countries for a higher plurality of main currencies, raising the use of the renminbi, “de-dollarization” looks bound to be partial and limited. • Higher speed and depth of such a transformation would require a metamorphosis of China’s regulatory and policy regime for which the country will not have the desire to implement. • While the euro has remained mostly a regional reserve currency, the U.S. may retain its “exorbitant privilege” through the provision of U.S. dollar safe assets for longer.
Por que haverá uma desdolarização devagar e limitada
Tem havido uma redução no grau de "dominância" do dólar, com uma queda se sua parcela nas reservas dos bancos centrais desde a virada do século, de 71% em 1999 para 58,4% ao final de 2022. Contudo, fatores gravitacionais favorecem a continuidade da posição central do dólar em mercados financeiros internacionais, nas faturas e pagamentos comerciais, assim como em reservas cambiais públicas e privadas
The global economy faces a lost decade
The economic factors that have propelled global prosperity over the past three decades are losing their grip. The aging and slow growth of the global workforce are highlighted as downward factors, explaining half of the expected slowdown in potential GDP growth through 2030. What should countries do in the face of this prospect of a “lost decade”?
Uma década perdida para a economia global
Esta semana o Banco Mundial divulgou um relatório projetando uma redução no limite de velocidade com que a economia global poderá crescer no restante dessa década. As alavancas econômicas que impulsionaram a prosperidade nas últimas três décadas estariam perdendo força.
Por que o estresse bancário nos Estados Unidos dessa vez é diferente
Está o sistema bancário dos Estados Unidos à beira de um precipício como o de 2008? Seriam as últimas semanas o prenúncio de uma nova crise sistêmica? O dilema do Fed entre combater inflação e assegurar estabilidade financeira ficou mais apertado, com “dominância financeira” caso os juros sejam mantidos abaixo do que a política contra a inflação recomendaria. Apesar do otimismo de que o estresse no sistema financeiro será contido, um endurecimento de condições financeiras – em ações e crédito - já está ocorrendo.
Gender inequality in the labor market: the case of Morocco
Gender disparities in the labor market persist as a serious challenge, resulting in lower participation rates for women than men. This gender gap in labor force participation varies considerably across regions, with female participation rates consistently lagging men. After some progress during the last few decades, the multiple crises faced by the global economy in recent times – pandemic, the war in Ukraine, rising risks of climate change, and slowing growth after high inflation – have meant a setback to progress in reforms toward the empowerment of women in labor markets. We approach here how Morocco can strengthen productivity and economic growth by pursuing reforms to reduce gender inequality of opportunities.
Floresta amazônica, meio ambiente, preservacão ambiental, madeira, desmatamento, em Manaus | Sérgio Lima/Poder360 01.nov.2021
The Amazon Needs the Rule of Law, Not the Rule of Chainsaw
At the origin of deforestation, there is a problem of what economists call ‘microeconomic incentives’, that is, the (risk-weighted) costs and benefits for the perpetrators. Avoiding forest damage means acting on this calculation. Having bills approved is not enough. For deforesters to take them into account in their calculations, enforcement must be effective. The risk-adjusted cost-benefit calculation favors compliance with the law only when, in case of disobedience, the probability of capture and significant punishment are sufficiently high.
Floresta amazônica, meio ambiente, preservacão ambiental, madeira, desmatamento, em Manaus | Sérgio Lima/Poder360 01.nov.2021
A lei tem que predominar sobre a motosserra
Na origem do desmatamento, tem um problema que os economistas chamam de “incentivos microeconômicos”, vale dizer, custos e benefícios (levando em conta os riscos) encarados pelos perpetradores. Urge, pois, atuar sobre esse cálculo para se evitar o dano florestal. Não basta ter a lei. Para que entre no cálculo do desmatador, é preciso que seja eficaz no cumprimento. O cálculo custo-benefício ajustado aos riscos favorece a obediência à lei apenas quando são suficientemente altas a probabilidade de captura e a punição significativa em caso de desobediência.
The Impacts of China’s Economic Reopening on Latin America
The post-‘COVID zero’ reopening of the Chinese economy has improved its growth outlook: the IMF projects 5.2% growth (2023), with declines afterward up to 3.5% in 2028. Will economic reopening and Chinese growth be strong enough to repeat previous contributions to Latin America via exports of food, minerals, and oil? This time it will be more gradual and in a different direction. Financial and investment flows will also be different.
Qual será o impacto da reabertura econômica chinesa sobre a América Latina?
A reabertura pós-COVID zero da economia chinesa melhorou suas perspectivas de crescimento: o FMI projeta crescimento de 5,2% (2023), com quedas posteriores de até 3,5% em 2028. A reabertura econômica e o crescimento chinês serão fortes o suficiente para repetir as contribuições anteriores à América Latina por meio das exportações de alimentos, minerais e petróleo? Desta vez, será mais gradual e em uma direção diferente. Os fluxos financeiros e de investimentos também serão diferentes.
Podcast – Otaviano Canuto on the Multiple Shocks Faced by Emerging Markets in 2022
Q&A on emerging markets and the multiple shocks faced by them in 2022
The parrot says that commodity prices will rise
In 2023, both the demand and supply sides point to upward pressure across much of commodity prices. Not all commodity prices will necessarily move up. As far as energy, metals and minerals are concerned, the parrot is likely looking up at this point; definitely in this case the best thing to do is to mimic the parrot.
Latin America in the Aftermath of Europe’s War
This chapter examines the impacts and durable consequences of Europe’s war (in Ukraine), overlapping with the effects of other components of the ‘perfect storm’ (pandemic, severe weather phenomenon, hunger, global inflation) for Latin America. First, we deal with the global tectonic shifts that have conditioned the region’s economic performance since the 1990s. Second, we outline the range of effects stemming from the ‘perfect storm’. The third section discusses how economic relations between China and Latin America have evolved. Finally, we frame the U.S.-China rivalry in a Latin American context.
How to measure the digital economy in 5G technologies and Digital Silk Road era
The current transformation of the society under the influence of digital technologies has no historical analogue in terms of its spread and the pace of development. The future will heavily depend on digital technologies. The role of the digital economy and 5G technologies is increasing day by day and for Georgia, - as a developing country, it is important not to fall behind the world trends. Measuring the digital economy and calculating its mathematical algorithm (gross virtual product) is important for the modern world, since, based on the world development trends, the digital economy plays an imperative role directly in the development of the economy. A non-existent, highly unusual and universal economic governance is being established - a corporate "digital dictatorship", with its benefits and risks, which will radically change human thinking, mentality, consumer behavior and economic activity. A new paradigm of employment is developing - Gigeconomy. A new model of economic relations is established - platform economy and many others.
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