Read more about the article The Amazon Needs the Rule of Law, Not the Rule of Chainsaw
Floresta amazônica, meio ambiente, preservacão ambiental, madeira, desmatamento, em Manaus | Sérgio Lima/Poder360 01.nov.2021

The Amazon Needs the Rule of Law, Not the Rule of Chainsaw

At the origin of deforestation, there is a problem of what economists call ‘microeconomic incentives’, that is, the (risk-weighted) costs and benefits for the perpetrators. Avoiding forest damage means acting on this calculation. Having bills approved is not enough. For deforesters to take them into account in their calculations, enforcement must be effective. The risk-adjusted cost-benefit calculation favors compliance with the law only when, in case of disobedience, the probability of capture and significant punishment are sufficiently high.

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Read more about the article A lei tem que predominar sobre a motosserra
Floresta amazônica, meio ambiente, preservacão ambiental, madeira, desmatamento, em Manaus | Sérgio Lima/Poder360 01.nov.2021

A lei tem que predominar sobre a motosserra

Na origem do desmatamento, tem um problema que os economistas chamam de “incentivos microeconômicos”, vale dizer, custos e benefícios (levando em conta os riscos) encarados pelos perpetradores. Urge, pois, atuar sobre esse cálculo para se evitar o dano florestal. Não basta ter a lei. Para que entre no cálculo do desmatador, é preciso que seja eficaz no cumprimento. O cálculo custo-benefício ajustado aos riscos favorece a obediência à lei apenas quando são suficientemente altas a probabilidade de captura e a punição significativa em caso de desobediência.

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Read more about the article The Impacts of China’s Economic Reopening on Latin America

The Impacts of China’s Economic Reopening on Latin America

The post-‘COVID zero’ reopening of the Chinese economy has improved its growth outlook: the IMF projects 5.2% growth (2023), with declines afterward up to 3.5% in 2028. Will economic reopening and Chinese growth be strong enough to repeat previous contributions to Latin America via exports of food, minerals, and oil? This time it will be more gradual and in a different direction. Financial and investment flows will also be different.

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Read more about the article Qual será o impacto da reabertura econômica chinesa sobre a América Latina?

Qual será o impacto da reabertura econômica chinesa sobre a América Latina?

A reabertura pós-COVID zero da economia chinesa melhorou suas perspectivas de crescimento: o FMI projeta crescimento de 5,2% (2023), com quedas posteriores de até 3,5% em 2028. A reabertura econômica e o crescimento chinês serão fortes o suficiente para repetir as contribuições anteriores à América Latina por meio das exportações de alimentos, minerais e petróleo? Desta vez, será mais gradual e em uma direção diferente. Os fluxos financeiros e de investimentos também serão diferentes.

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Read more about the article The parrot says that commodity prices will rise

The parrot says that commodity prices will rise

In 2023, both the demand and supply sides point to upward pressure across much of commodity prices. Not all commodity prices will necessarily move up. As far as energy, metals and minerals are concerned, the parrot is likely looking up at this point; definitely in this case the best thing to do is to mimic the parrot.

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Read more about the article Latin America in the Aftermath of Europe’s War

Latin America in the Aftermath of Europe’s War

This chapter examines the impacts and durable consequences of Europe’s war (in Ukraine), overlapping with the effects of other components of the ‘perfect storm’ (pandemic, severe weather phenomenon, hunger, global inflation) for Latin America. First, we deal with the global tectonic shifts that have conditioned the region’s economic performance since the 1990s. Second, we outline the range of effects stemming from the ‘perfect storm’. The third section discusses how economic relations between China and Latin America have evolved. Finally, we frame the U.S.-China rivalry in a Latin American context.

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Read more about the article How to measure the digital economy in 5G technologies and Digital Silk Road era

How to measure the digital economy in 5G technologies and Digital Silk Road era

The current transformation of the society under the influence of digital technologies has no historical analogue in terms of its spread and the pace of development. The future will heavily depend on digital technologies. The role of the digital economy and 5G technologies is increasing day by day and for Georgia, - as a developing country, it is important not to fall behind the world trends. Measuring the digital economy and calculating its mathematical algorithm (gross virtual product) is important for the modern world, since, based on the world development trends, the digital economy plays an imperative role directly in the development of the economy. A non-existent, highly unusual and universal economic governance is being established - a corporate "digital dictatorship", with its benefits and risks, which will radically change human thinking, mentality, consumer behavior and economic activity. A new paradigm of employment is developing - Gigeconomy. A new model of economic relations is established - platform economy and many others.

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Read more about the article Política industrial e “desglobalização”

Política industrial e “desglobalização”

Políticas industriais implicam custos econômicos (fiscais, ineficiência), compensáveis na perspectiva de um país apenas na medida em que, em certo horizonte temporal, os efeitos sejam tais que não apenas venham a torná-las redundantes, como também compensem tais custos. As razões para o desencanto relativo com a globalização não parecem ser suficientes para sua adoção generalizada.

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Read more about the article Macroeconomic Policy Regime Change in Advanced Economies

Macroeconomic Policy Regime Change in Advanced Economies

Three significant changes to the macroeconomic policy regime in advanced economies, compared to the post-global financial crisis period, have unfolded in the last two years. First, fears of a chronic insufficiency of aggregate demand as a growth deterrent prevailing after the 2008 global financial crisis, have been superseded by supply-side shocks and inflation. Second, as a result of the first change, the era of abundant and cheap liquidity provided by central banks has given way to higher interest rates and liquidity squeezes. Finally, because of the previous changes, there was a strong devaluation of financial assets in 2022. There are now fears about multiple possibilities of financial shocks ahead.

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Read more about the article Ambiente Macroeconômico nos Países Avançados Atravessa Mudanças

Ambiente Macroeconômico nos Países Avançados Atravessa Mudanças

Neste ano, assistimos o curso de três mudanças significativas no ambiente macroeconômico das economias avançadas em relação ao período posterior à crise financeira global de 2008. Primeiro, já em 2021, a possível insuficiência crônica de demanda agregada de antes deu lugar a choques de restrições no lado da oferta e à subida inflacionária. Como consequência, a era de liquidez abundante e barata provida por bancos centrais deu lugar a juros mais altos e a apertos na liquidez neste ano. Finalmente, como resultado das mudanças anteriores, viu-se forte desvalorização de ativos financeiros e receios quanto a múltiplas possibilidades de choques em 2023.

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Read more about the article The Fed’s Focus on the Labor Market

The Fed’s Focus on the Labor Market

Monetary tightening is aimed at slowing demand growth relative to aggregate supply, which will require a sustained period of below-trend US economic growth. It is in the labor market that the Fed's monetary policy script will be written. Judging by Powell's presentation last week at Brookings, and given the outstanding fears of price-wage spirals.

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