Canuto: Falta de Concorrencia no Brasil Favorece Empresas Ineficientes e Com Baixa Produtividade

publicado 05/04/2016 15h59, última modificação 05/04/2016 15h59 São Paulo – Mercados protegidos e baixa exposição ao comércio exterior inibem concorrência, segundo o diretor do FMI   Uma das causas da baixa competitividade brasileira…

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Capital Flows and Deleveraging in Emerging Markets

Capital outflows from emerging market economies have substantially accelerated since last year. Some analysts have taken those features as pointing to a high likelihood of a “third wave” of the global financial crisis, this time centered on emerging markets. While arguably their combination may acquire a disorderly nature and materialize systemic risks to those economies as a group – and therefore to the global economy going forward – there are also reasons to expect the significant portfolio rebalancing at play not to lead to a disruptive break.

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Whither Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Reserves

After a exponential rise in foreign exchange reserves accumulation by emerging markets from 2000 onwards, the tide seems to have turned south since mid-2014. Changes in capital flows and commodity prices have been major factors behind the inflection, with the new direction expected to remain, given the context of the global economy going forward. Although it is too early to gauge whether the on-going relative unwinding of such reserves defenses will lead to vulnerability in specific emerging markets, the payoff from strengthening domestic policies has broadly increased.

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Middle-income growth traps

This paper studies the existence of middle-income growth traps in a two-period overlapping generations model of economic growth with two types of labor and endogenous occupational choices. It also distinguishes between “basic” and “advanced” infrastructure, with the latter promoting design activities, and accounts for a knowledge network externality associated with product diversification. Multiple steady-state equilibria may emerge, one of them taking the form of a low-growth trap characterized by low productivity growth and a misallocation of talent—defined as a relatively low share of high-ability workers in design activities. Improved access to advanced infrastructure may help to escape from that trap. The implications of other public policies, including the protection of property rights and labor market reforms, are also discussed.

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