Central Banks and Inequality

As in the period after the 2007-08 global financial crisis, voices have been raised talking about monetary policy and central banks as drivers of income and wealth inequality. The unconventional policies of “quantitative easing” protect the holders of financial assets and value their properties, while workers cross a rough patch on the real side of the economy. Financial markets have disconnected from hardships in the street of commons, with the help of the policies of monetary authorities. Does it make sense to assign an impact of concentration of income and wealth to central bankers' policies? It's complicated...

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Read more about the article E por que não parlamentarismo? questionam Otaviano Canuto e Tiago Ribeiro dos Santos
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E por que não parlamentarismo? questionam Otaviano Canuto e Tiago Ribeiro dos Santos

Países precisam adotar alguma forma de governo e de organização econômica e qualquer crítica de falta de estudos conclusivos aplicável ao parlamentarismo se aplica com a mesma força a todas as outras propostas na arena pública, com a diferença de que essas propostas não contam com a riqueza de teoria e evidências com que conta o parlamentarismo. Por esses motivos é que propomos a inversão do ônus da prova aos que argumentam contra a forma de organização social mais bem-sucedida da humanidade: por que não?

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Por que o dólar fraco é bom para economias emergentes

Afrouxamento de condições financeiras e expansão sustentada do crédito global favorecem o crescimento no lado real de economias emergentes, com a presença do dólar como fator influente nessa transmissão. Segundo estimativas dos autores, um choque de 1% de valorização do dólar contra uma cesta ampla de outras moedas reduz em 0,3 ponto percentual o crescimento econômico de um grupo de 21 emergentes por eles considerados. Presume-se um impacto no sentido inverso no caso de desvalorização do dólar.

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2 VIDEOS – Latin America and the multilateral world + Macroeconomic Policies in times of COVID-19 in Emerging Markets: Early Lessons

Latin America and the multilateral world — Otaviano Canuto Today's episode with Otaviano Canuto (ex World Bank, IMF, IDB) covers the current state of the region's economy, the role of multilateral organizations, Brazil's economic prospects and the post-COVID scenario for Latin America. ------------------- Macroeconomic Policies in times of COVID-19 in Emerging Markets: Early Lessons Moderator: Andrés Schipani, East and Central Africa Correspondent, Financial Times Speakers: - Otaviano Canuto, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South - Karim El Aynaoui, President, Policy Center for the New South, Dean, Faculty of Governance, Economics and Social Sciences, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University - Célestin Monga, Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School

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Brazil at a Post-Pandemic Macroeconomic Crossroads

Moving forward—or not—with structural reforms aimed at enhancing fiscal adjustment and lifting private investment will define whether a sustainable—or unsustainable—growth-cum-debt trajectory will prevail in Brazil in the next decade. The extent to which its economy regains its attractiveness for foreign investors will play a key role.

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Why a Weaker Dollar Might Be Good for Emerging Markets?

There is currently a convergence of views that, gradually or not, US current account deficits and insufficient domestic savings tend to slide down the relative value of the dollar. Four “channels of dollar transmission” explain why there is a negative correlation between the dollar's strength and economic growth of emerging market economies. A dollar depreciation against a wide basket of currencies in 2021 would likely be welcome by emerging economies.

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Middle-income countries should not be rushed to graduate

Many donor countries seem eager to see middle-income countries “master out” and graduate to a non-client status in multilateral development institutions before fully achieving their development potential. We argue that such institutions can still significantly contribute to the sustainable development of Middle Income Countries, while also seizing many benefits from this relationship

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Globalização remodelada pela pandemia, escreve Otaviano Canuto

Ao intensificar forças geopolíticas e econômicas já em ação, o impacto perturbador da pandemia no comércio internacional deixará uma marca duradoura. A pandemia está acelerando a história, ou seja, algumas tendências recentes estão sendo acentuadas. A pandemia não reverterá a globalização, mas a remodelará.

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The pandemic will reshape globalization

The pandemic is accelerating history, in the sense that some of its recent trends are being sped up. In the case of globalization, the pandemic will not reverse it, but it will reshape it. Here we take a bird’s eye view on global trade during the pandemic, relate it to previous trends, and guess how global value chain managers and governments’ trade policymakers are likely to react.

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The two sides of capital flows to Brazil

There was a significant inflow of funds in Brazil's external financial account in October and November for investments in both stocks and fixed income instruments. The bulk of the recent inflow has come in a “passive” way, and it did not include considerable volume on the side of “active” investors. For the wave to unfold in the availability of external resources to finance investments in the country, progress and confidence in the domestic fiscal and regulatory agenda will be relevant.

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Os dois lados dos fluxos de capital para o Brasil

Houve entrada significativa de recursos na conta financeira externa do Brasil em outubro e novembro para investimentos em ações e em títulos de renda fixa. A maior parte do ingresso recente veio de forma “passiva” e não incluiu um volume considerável por parte de investidores “ativos”. Para que a onda se desdobre em disponibilidade de recursos externos para financiar investimentos no país, serão relevantes os avanços e a confiança na agenda fiscal e regulatória domestica.

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PODCAST Who do the IMF and World Bank really serve?

How the IMF and World Bank came into existence, why they are needed, what were the problems these institutions were designed to fix? So why has it seemed that, in recent decades, these institutions have become more concerned with promoting capital account liberalization more so than anything else? A case could be made that some of the prescriptions of the IMF and World Bank may not actually improve the economic prospects of the countries they engage with. What is your take on their effectiveness? Can the IMF do a better job of perhaps staying away or “doing no harm” by choosing not to lend to countries who are insolvent, or are there actually things that they can do to help? So, could these institutions use a healthy dose of not only educational diversity, but also geographical diversity in its leadership and staff? Is there a world where we shift away from austerity being a condition for lending, or is the IMF so concerned about getting its money back—and a decent return—that they feel they have to impose these measures so they can appease the US and other member countries that hold large voting blocs? If the IMF and World Bank are to be truly international institutions, with input from all of its member countries, doesn’t the voting structure have to change, and isn’t the current voting framework quite different from how it was when the IMF and World Bank were created? So, what are some things they should be proud of, and what do you believe should be the role of the IMF and World Bank in the 21st century?

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Global Economy and Coronavirus: 2 videos

The global economic activity has climbed up since June but there are signs that the recovery may be losing momentum. Instead of a V, U, W, or L, a square root as a recovery shape looks more likely, as we approached before in this series. And the crisis is likely to leave deep, unequal scars on segments of the labor market, while a reallocation of resources among sectors is already taking place

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