Read more about the article Por que e como descarbonizar a economia

Por que e como descarbonizar a economia

A transição para “zero” emissões envolverá três processos econômicos simultâneos. Antes de tudo, uma alteração significativa nos preços relativos de bens e serviços, com estes passando a refletir a intensidade de uso do carbono, cujo preço terá de subir de zero a patamares significativos. Adicionalmente, trabalhadores terão de ser realocados das atividades intensivas em carbono para seus substitutos verdes. Terceiro, haverá obsolescência acelerada dos estoques existentes de ativos físicos (máquinas e equipamentos, construções, veículos) e intangíveis associados a atividades intensivas em carbono. A contrapartida terá de ser o investimento acelerado nos novos ativos que lhes substituirão.

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Read more about the article The Road to Decarbonization

The Road to Decarbonization

It will be necessary to accelerate the pace of global containment of carbon emissions if the expected increases in global average temperatures are to be kept below 2 or 1.5 degrees Celsius, with correspondingly less-dramatic climatic consequences. The transition to zero emissions will involve three simultaneous economic processes: change in the relative prices of goods and services, with prices starting to reflect the intensity of emissions of carbon; labor relocation; and asset value scrapping. The socioeconomic return from decarbonization must include preventing heatwaves, floods, hurricanes, droughts, floods, and storms like those of this year from becoming even more intense and frequent, the cost of which would involve even higher GDP losses for nations.

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Read more about the article Emerging market capital flows after Covid-19

Emerging market capital flows after Covid-19

With loose money supply and low returns in the developed world, emerging markets have become the destination of choice for investors looking for high yields. However, with much uncertainty remaining and inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s target rate, speculation of Fed tapering and market tantrums are gaining momentum. OMFIF is convening a panel to look at capital flows in emerging markets, addressing what happens when the cycle turns, the likelihood of capital flows reverting and asset and currency markets in the developing world.

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Read more about the article U.S. Bubble-Led Macroeconomics

U.S. Bubble-Led Macroeconomics

Macroeconomic dynamics in the U.S. economy has increasingly become associated with asset price fluctuations in the past few decades. Financial conditions have increasingly become an influential factor shaping the cyclical pace of the macroeconomy. There has been a mismatch between rising financial wealth and the pace of creation and incorporation of new assets. Several secular stagnation hypotheses offer explanations for the insufficient creation of new assets. Public debt—and its partial monetization by central banks—has played a stabilizing role by boosting the net supply of assets available to accommodate the demand for financial assets. The U.S. big balance sheet economy has been on a growth path highly dependent on the continuity of low real interest rates, as well as stretched price-earnings ratios of stocks and high corporate debt. Periodic episodes of downward adjustment of asset prices have been countervailed with lax monetary policies.

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Read more about the article Helicopter Reserves to the Rescue

Helicopter Reserves to the Rescue

A new allocation of US$650 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to its member countries has entered into force last Monday. The extraordinary character of the allocation initiated this time is seen in the fact that its amount corresponds to more than double the sum of all allocations made to date. As allocations follow country IMF quotas, relief for those in need of reserves will come as an excess in other cases. The IMF set out to find ways in which countries with SDR surpluses can voluntarily channel them to those in need.

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Read more about the article Reservas internacionais chegaram de helicóptero, escreve Otaviano Canuto.

Reservas internacionais chegaram de helicóptero, escreve Otaviano Canuto.

Uma nova alocação de US$ 650 bilhões em Direitos Especiais de Saque (DES) do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) para seus países membros entrou em vigor na última segunda-feira 23. O caráter extraordinário da atribuição iniciada desta vez traduz-se no fato de o seu valor corresponder a mais do dobro do somatório de todas as atribuições efetuadas até à data. Como as alocações seguem as cotas dos países do FMI, o alívio para aqueles que precisam de reservas virá como um excesso em outros casos. O FMI decidiu encontrar maneiras pelas quais os países com superávits de DES possam canalizá-los voluntariamente para os necessitados.

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Read more about the article Por que maiores déficits em conta corrente não são problemáticos na crise de Covid

Por que maiores déficits em conta corrente não são problemáticos na crise de Covid

Apesar do aumento dos saldos em conta corrente em termos absolutos em 2020 (em 0,4 ponto percentual do PIB global), os desequilíbrios globais excessivos —ou seja, a soma dos valores absolutos dos saldos considerados divergentes dos níveis correspondentes a fundamentos e políticas adequadas no médio prazo— se mantiveram em torno de 1,2% do PIB mundial, próximos aos anteriores.

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Read more about the article China’s renminbi needs convertibility to internationalize

China’s renminbi needs convertibility to internationalize

Commercial transactions and reserves of central banks and other global public investors could strengthen the position of the Renminbi as an alternative currency to the dollar, euro, yen and pound sterling. However, the qualitative leap towards the internationalization of the Chinese currency as a full reserve currency will only happen when confidence in its convertibility is sufficient to convince unofficial (private) investors to hold much more reserves denominated in it.

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Read more about the article Moeda chinesa precisa de conversibilidade para internacionalizar, escreve Otaviano Canuto

Moeda chinesa precisa de conversibilidade para internacionalizar, escreve Otaviano Canuto

Enquanto transações comerciais e reservas de bancos centrais e outros investidores públicos globais poderão reforçar a posição do Renminbi como moeda alternativa ao dólar, euro, yen e libra esterlina, o salto qualitativo para a internacionalização da moeda chinesa como moeda reserva só ocorrerá quando a confiança em sua conversibilidade for suficiente para convencer investidores não-oficiais (privados) a guardar reservas nela denominadas.

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Read more about the article Development through gender equality

Development through gender equality

Empirical evidence shows that gender inequality, including from legal gender-related restrictions, leads to the loss of growth opportunities, particularly in countries at earlier stages of development. The adverse effect of legal barriers to women’s participation in economic activities remains significant for countries at different stages of development. Time is now for investing in women and ensuring countries and the world can honor commitments and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals agreed upon to ensure a prosperous and sustainable world for generations to come.

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Read more about the article Will Another Taper Tantrum Hit Emerging Markets?
Finance investment stock market chart graph currency exchange global business fintech ++The World map texture derived from public domain NASA: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov. Traced in Illustrator. File created on November 29 2018++

Will Another Taper Tantrum Hit Emerging Markets?

Market movements this month have led to renewed fears that changes in US financial and monetary conditions will trigger a painful wave of capital flight from emerging markets, as happened in 2013. But times have changed, and the greatest risks to emerging markets now lie elsewhere.

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Read more about the article Matchmaking Private Finance and Green Infrastructure

Matchmaking Private Finance and Green Infrastructure

The contrast between the scarcity of investments in infrastructure – particularly in non-advanced economies – and the excess of savings invested in liquid and low-return assets in the global economy deserves to be confronted. Greening infrastructure in non-advanced economies would benefit from being able to attract greenbacks into the business. Building a bridge between private finance and (green) infrastructure would need the development of pipeline of projects with homogeneous regulations and standards, as well as with minimum mismatch between risks and comfort of private investors to manage them along project stages.

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Read more about the article Como verdejar a infraestrutura

Como verdejar a infraestrutura

O contraste entre a escassez de investimentos em infraestrutura —particularmente em economias não desenvolvidas —e o excesso de poupança aplicada em formas líquidas e de baixo retorno na economia global merece ser confrontado. “Verdejar” a infraestrutura em economias não avançadas se beneficiaria da viabilização de atrair verdinhas para o negócio.

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Read more about the article Lost in transition: developing countries in the global economy

Lost in transition: developing countries in the global economy

The growth and productivity performance of emerging market and developing economies since the 2008 global financial crisis failed to repeat the achievements of the previous decade. Besides frustrating expectations that they might become the new growth pole in the global economy, their convergence to per capita incomes of advanced economies has suffered a setback. Nonetheless, the path of policies and reforms to be pursued in that direction remains the same. This is something accentuated by the coronavirus pandemic crisis.

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