Trump 2.0 promete um choque econômico global
Se republicano sobrepujar limites legais do mercado internacional e implementar algo próximo do que prometeu, economia global sofrerá fortes impactos
Se republicano sobrepujar limites legais do mercado internacional e implementar algo próximo do que prometeu, economia global sofrerá fortes impactos
O uso crescente de moedas locais em pagamentos externos, nos BRICS ou fora deles, será parte do que já chamamos de “desdolarização devagar e limitada”. Como parcela das reservas globais, o dólar americano caiu de um pouco acima de 70% em 2000 para um pouco abaixo de 60% em 2022. Contudo, enquanto uma moeda local não for plenamente conversível, permanecendo sujeita a regulações restringindo a liquidez e a disponibilidade de ativos - como permanece sendo o renminbi - não cumprirá a função de reserva externa de valor para o grosso dos agentes na economia global.
The digital revolution is bringing about a dramatic shift in power, from labor to capital. We assess what the impact of this transformation might be on land as a factor of production. The digital revolution is not happening in a historical vacuum. It unfolds within a framework of confrontation or collusion between market forces and government forces. Depending on the market power that companies can exercise, the digital transition will have different impacts on income distributions between capital, labor, and land, as well as on income distribution within capital itself. This digital transition is advancing during a period of history marked by the worsening of four major crises, the effects of which are interconnected: international, environmental, democratic, and distributive. Urban land management, based on collective purpose, must be recognized as a strategic asset in building a future in which progress is guided by equity, resilience, and social responsibility, with human dignity and the environment at the center of decisions.
The road to decarbonizing the planet runs through the energy transition, which includes the shift from fossil-fueled cars to renewable energy vehicles. This automotive transition is unfolding as a true revolution in the industry. The evolution toward electric and hybrid vehicles has come in tandem with the ascent of Chinese producers. In the current context of geopolitical and technological rivalries, the automotive transition has been marked by an intense trade war, with implications for the trajectory of decarbonization.
A estrada rumo à descarbonização do planeta passa pela transição energética, a qual inclui a transição de automóveis movidos a energia fóssil para renovável. Esta transição está ocorrendo como uma verdadeira revolução na indústria automotiva. Adicionalmente, a transição automotiva já está sofrendo o impacto da rivalidade geopolítica entre Estados Unidos, Europa e a China. A transição automotiva está sendo um componente complexo e nada linear da transição energética.
A terra urbana, mais do que um recurso físico, representa o último foco de resistência contra a lógica desigualitária do capital. Nas cidades, onde se desenrolam os temas centrais da vida contemporânea, a terra pode ser o alicerce de um modelo de desenvolvimento social e ambientalmente mais equilibrado. A revolução digital oferece ferramentas para renovar a ocupação urbana, promovendo justiça e inclusão, mas é a vontade humana, orientando conscientemente essas lógicas, que evitará o mecanicismo impessoal do mercado. A gestão da terra urbana, fundamentada na intencionalidade coletiva, deve ser reconhecida como um ativo estratégico na construção de um futuro em que o progresso seja guiado por equidade, resiliência e responsabilidade social, com a dignidade humana e o meio ambiente no centro das decisões.
The resurgence of Neo protectionism as a reality is creating a pressing need to establish New Industrial Policies (NIPs) capable of striking a balance between Global Value Chains (GVC) managers' quest for efficiency and policy makers' need for more increasing resilience or national security in a turmoiled geopolitical landscape. Furthermore, although NIPs might pursue legitimate non-economic objectives, they are often captured by vested interests, resulting in protectionist measures. These policies produce negative spillovers, jeopardizing other countries’ development perspectives. This policy brief posits that countries embracing industrial policies with trade diversion components must allocate efforts to implement additional trade liberalization in sectors where the affected exporting countries have comparative advantages as compensation for the negative spillovers their unilateral domestic policies impose on third countries. This highlights the need to establish a structured system that penalizes protectionist countries for exceeding predetermined limits on subsidies and distortive measures. This policy brief also recommends that advanced economies implementing industrial policies with high amounts of embodied subsidies contribute to an international fund dedicated to financing developing economies' access to new green technologies. This approach acknowledges the undeniable push towards aggressive industrial policies, yet simultaneously strives to establish a framework to temper this emerging trend. This mechanism aligns with the principles of economic fairness and encourages nations to adopt less distortive behaviors in their pursuit of economic security or resilience to shocks.
Harris e Trump têm propostas diferenciadas quanto a tarifas, tributos, energia e imigração. Se você acredita na mudança climática causada por emissões de carbono e deseja uma transição para energia renovável no mundo, bem como se acredita que o comércio entre os países não é um jogo de “perde-ganha”, já sabe por quem torcerá.
Kamala and Trump have different proposals regarding tariffs, taxes, energy and immigration. If you believe that the ongoing global warming is due to carbon emissions and desire a transition to renewable energy worldwide, and if you believe that trade between countries is not a “zero-sum game”, you already know who you will be rooting for.
Fourteen high-income countries have shown how immigration can help offset declining fertility rates and maintain population levels. But with anti-immigrant sentiment on the rise, politicians in these countries face a difficult choice: welcoming foreigners or facing the economic challenges brought about by an aging population.
Volumes menores, investimentos diretos e foco em novas tecnologias agora predominam
• China's economy grew 4.7% in Q2, with a target set at 5% for 2024. • Challenges include real estate sector exhaustion, local government debt, domestic demand, and external resistance to exports. • The Third Plenum highlights reforms for housing, fiscal policy, and addressing challenges, but lacks focus on stimulating consumption.
A evidência de que os danos da mudança climática já chegaram e vão aumentar é insofismável. O cenário só não será cada vez pior se conseguirmos reduzir as emissões de carbono, o que dependerá de países estabelecerem e cumprirem NDCs condizentes. A evolução recente da política em países com peso nessa trajetória não parece alvissareira. Resta-nos torcer para que essa evolução não traga consequências maiores para nossa trajetória na “estrada da descarbonização”.
The evidence that the damage from climate change has already arrived and will increase is irrefutable. The situation will only get worse if the world fails to reduce carbon emissions—which will depend on countries establishing and fulfilling appropriate NDCs. Recent political developments in countries with significant influence on this trajectory do not seem promising. We can only hope that this evolution does not bring greater consequences for the ‘road to decarbonization’.
The global economy is expected to stabilize for the first time in three years, but more weakly than in previous recoveries, according to a new report from the World Bank. Inflation, higher interest rates, as well as trade and geopolitical tensions could make this decade more sluggish than the last one ------------- Explore the evolution, impact, and future trends of digital currencies with our Senior Fellow, Mr. Otaviano Canuto. In this insightful video, he sheds light on how digital currencies are transforming global markets and what to expect in the coming years.