Global imbalances, coronavirus, and safe assets
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released, on August 4th, its ninth annual External Sector Report, where current account imbalances and asset-liability stocks of 30 systemically large economies are approached. This time the report went beyond looking the previous year and tried to anticipate what will be some of the impacts of the still on-going COVID-19 crisis. The report shows that the global economy entered the COVID-19 crisis with a configuration of external imbalances that has persisted since 2013, with a corresponding elevation of stocks of foreign assets and liabilities. While the outbreak of COVID-19 has brought a deep contraction to world trade and a substantial realignment of exchange rates, the IMF does not expect dramatic changes in the picture of global imbalances, differently from the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2018-19. Additionally, we should take note of how country-level mismatches between demand and supply of safe assets, leading to cross-border flows and imbalances, may also be affected.