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Otaviano Canuto draws on extensive experience working in multilateral institutions, government, and academia across a wide range of markets and countries to assist clients navigate challenges and opportunities.
Latest articles
The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture: Toward a System that Delivers for the South
The Policy Center for the New South and the Atlantic Council Africa Center have jointly released a report on “The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture: Toward a System that Delivers for the South,” by Otaviano Canuto, Hafez Ghanem, Youssef El Jai, and Stéphane Le Bouder.
This report issues specific and urgent calls for reform, including more representative global governance, increasing the World Bank’s operational and financial capacity, prioritizing programs that would integrate Africa into the global economy, connecting the continent’s critical infrastructure and trade routes, and increasing participation and collaboration with bilateral public and private lenders and investors, such as China, sovereign wealth funds, and multinationals.
2024 marks eighty years of the Bretton Woods system. It is crucial to implement extensive reforms and substantial policies to support African nations’ efforts and maximize their chances to unleash their immense economic potential.
These recommendations presented during the 2024 IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings reflect the urgency of both operational and more inclusive reforms for the African continent.
China’s Economic Growth on Target Despite Challenges
IMF projects China’s economic growth at 4.6% and 4.1% for this year and next. China’s official target is 5%.
Six challenges to China’s economic growth include the real estate sector, local government debt, domestic demand, external resistance to China’s exports, change in foreign investor sentiment, and demographic decline.
Despite challenges, China’s economic growth remained steady in Q1 2024, with exports and manufacturing investment compensating for the drag from the property sector.
O lado fiscal do “novo normal” nas economias avançadas
Há um “novo normal” com custos de financiamento significativamente mais altos do que na última década.
Se melhorias nos saldos primários dos governos não puderem ser alcançadas para compensar taxas reais mais altas e crescimento potencial mais baixo, a dívida soberana continuará a crescer.
Isso também poderá trazer implicações para a saúde do setor financeiro. Taxas de juros mais altas, níveis mais altos de dívida soberana e uma parcela maior dessa dívida no balanço do setor bancário tornam o setor financeiro mais vulnerável.
Uma reconstrução gradual e crível de amortecedores fiscais que garantam a sustentabilidade de longo prazo de dívidas soberanas será apropriada no “novo normal” do regime de políticas macroeconômicas.
The Global War of Subsidies
Janet Yellen warns China against flooding the world with cheap exports of clean energy.
Excess industrial capacity and government support in China’s clean energy sector were discussed by US Treasury officials.
The US, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Australia are implementing subsidy programs to protect their domestic industries and compete with China.
Demographic Dynamics and Immigration Policies in High-Income Countries
Most high-income countries will experience declines in their populations over the next few decades. Some negative consequences of aging are on the horizon: greater fiscal imbalances and risks of economic stagnation.
Immigration may be a way for those countries to mitigate the tendency. On the source side of immigration flows, brain drain is a risk.
The policy paper presents the case of Japan, a nation that has grappled with the consequences of a declining and aging population for several years, as an example for other countries destined to confront similar circumstances in the forthcoming decades.
A Guerra Global de Subsídios
Qualquer avaliação econômica de custos e benefícios desses programas de subsídios enfrenta uma dificuldade inerente ao se levar em conta que os resultados buscados não são estritamente econômicos. Existe o risco de os países, especialmente os EUA e a China, adotarem definições cada vez mais amplas do que constitui um setor estratégico, disparando novas “guerras globais de subsídios”
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